By Chrispine Onyango
We are in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. It started as a health crisis and turned, within days, to become a real economic crisis. The challenges we face are daunting. There are potential ways to control the virus without shuttering the economy, but we must begin working on them immediately. To date, as the coronavirus has spread around the world, one question that has been top of mind is how much we can flatten the curve of infection rates. We have all seen the charts that show the value of spreading out infections in order to keep the peak within the manageable capacity of our health systems.
Let me define what the word ‘curve’ means. With the current pandemic, it refers to the projected number of people who will contract Covid-19 over a period of time. To be clear, this is not a hard prediction of how many people will definitely be infected, but a theoretical number that is used to model the virus' spread. Flattening the curve is, therefore, a public health strategy to slow down the spread of the virus during the Covid-19 pandemic. The curve takes on different shapes, depending on the virus's infection rate. It could be a steep curve, in which the virus spreads exponentially (that is, case counts keep doubling at a consistent rate), and the total number of cases skyrockets to its peak within a few weeks.
Infection curves with a steep rise tend to have a steep fall; after the virus infects pretty much everyone who can be infected, case numbers begin to drop exponentially, too. The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people. On the other hand, a flatter curve assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away.
Since there is currently no vaccine or specific medication to treat COVID-19, and with issues being raised on the country’s testing capability, the only way to flatten the curve is through collective action. The World Health Organization and the government have recommended that all people should wash their hands frequently, self-isolate when they're sick or suspect they might be, and practice ‘social distancing’. The other measure is to wear a face mask correctly when people go out in public.
To comply, we have seen public schools remaining closed temporarily - those being opened are directed to observe the health guidelines put in place. Similarly, many businesses have advised employees to work from home if possible. All these are measures taken as a way of ensuring the curve is being flattened.
